Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
99 0x99f3…f85a crypto 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-3%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%53W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$26
sports 14% −$30
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.9% -14.9% 50% 50% -13.5%
≤30d 40 +1.5% -8.2% 52% 52% -26.2%
≤90d 93 +3.9% -6.0% 57% 52% -12.9%
all 93 +3.9% -6.0% 57% 52% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 52% -12.9%
10% -15.0% 49% -21.2%
15% -23.2% 48% -28.8%
20% -30.7% 46% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses53 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)93 / 98
History coverage73d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 87¢ 75¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 02 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $61 +$64 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7PM ET May 08 $16 +$14 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.13 · official $19.13 (match) · 195 history records