Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99f4…ca42 crypto 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$27 (-26%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$33
other 29% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -44.1% -49.4% 33% 11% -37.5%
≤30d 18 -44.1% -49.4% 33% 11% -37.5%
≤90d 18 -44.1% -49.4% 33% 11% -37.5%
all 18 -44.1% -49.4% 33% 11% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.4% 11% -37.5%
10% ← realistic here -54.3% 11% -43.5%
15% -58.7% 11% -49.0%
20% -62.7% 6% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$3 -47%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records