Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:03:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99f5…5e52 other 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+7%) realized +$118 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%40W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$164
14 days+$100
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$75
sports 29% +$56
crypto 4% −$16
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -1.8% -11.2% 24% 24% +4.2%
≤30d 217 -27.1% -34.0% 18% 18% -5.5%
≤90d 217 -27.1% -34.0% 18% 18% -5.5%
all 217 -27.1% -34.0% 18% 18% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 18% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 18% -14.5%
15% -46.1% 18% -22.8%
20% -51.4% 17% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$825
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses40 / 177
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions37
Markets (closed)217 / 254
History coverage10d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $301 $307 +$6 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $152 $173 +$21 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $75 $63 −$12 (-16%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 53¢ 54¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 65¢ 65¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 30¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Norway? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Egypt? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $51 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $3 +$20 +654%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$11 +55%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $1 +$75 +7316%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $51 +$32 +63%
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 +$7 +140%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 28 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 +$4 +187%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 +$5 +474%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 +$10 +982%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$12 +238%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$9 +57%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $5 +$35 +680%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $2 +$16 +786%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 +$34 +94%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $49 2h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $49 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $5 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 65¢ $20 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY No 22¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $825.18 · official $825.22 (match) · 345 history records