Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x99f5…86e1 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$2
politics 33% −$1
crypto 7% +$36
economics 5% $0
world 2% $0
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +12.0% +1.4% 50% 50% -3.3%
≤30d 6 +25.5% +13.6% 67% 33% +12.1%
≤90d 9 +17.0% +5.9% 67% 22% +7.0%
all 36 +4.3% -5.7% 47% 6% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 6% -8.3%
10% -14.7% 6% -17.1%
15% -22.9% 3% -25.1%
20% -30.5% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×15.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.58 per $1 lost it wins $15.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage369d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 50¢ 50¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $46 $0 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 24 $19 +$5 +24%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? Jun 05 $28 +$35 +129%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 19? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? Feb 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $90 January 19-25? Feb 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14? Jan 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 21? Dec 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $220 on October 23? Nov 12 $9 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Oct 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will George Tuță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jun 23 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $355 $0 -0%
Will Denis Shapovalov win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 21 $332 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Candidate Lucian Croitoru? Jun 20 $340 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 20 $330 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $35 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $45 19d
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Marcus McGhee 80¢ $19 19d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $45 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 41d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 65d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $6 65d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 65d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $17 65d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $7 65d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 98d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 98d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 98d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 140d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $48 140d
Will Solana dip to $90 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $50 152d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 187d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 187d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $9 195d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $11 195d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 21? BUY No 100¢ $7 216d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 21? BUY No 100¢ $6 216d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $48 224d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $30 244d
Will the price of Solana be above $220 on October 23? BUY No 100¢ $9 244d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $20 244d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $50 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.86 · official $33.86 (match) · 97 history records