Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99f6…9c7f crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%53W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2
politics 13% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 4% -6.4%
≤30d 55 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 55 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 2% -9.7%
all 55 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses53 / 2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)55 / 63
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 97¢ 96¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 95¢ 92¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 6? Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $15 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $14 −$14 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $9 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 13h
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY No 98¢ $20 9d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY No 98¢ $20 9d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.66 · official $148.66 (match) · 116 history records