Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x99f7…6a76 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 667d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+1%) realized +$111 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$318
sports 34% +$365
world 27% +$19
crypto 1% +$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 50% +20.6%
≤30d 3 -4.3% -13.5% 33% 33% -15.0%
≤90d 22 -4.1% -13.3% 64% 45% +3.2%
all 31 -13.4% -21.7% 55% 42% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 42% -7.2%
10% -29.2% 23% -16.1%
15% -36.0% 13% -24.2%
20% -42.3% 10% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$45 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

667d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized+$111
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions6
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage667d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $86 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $90 $69 −$21 (-23%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $89 $68 −$21 (-23%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$10 +99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 −$12 -12%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 18 $506 −$13 -2%
Will Xabi Alonso be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 12 $204 +$3 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 10 $51 −$27 -52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $25 +$4 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $720 +$209 +29%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $540 −$92 -17%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $650 +$64 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 14 $258 +$151 +59%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $300 +$184 +61%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 06 $188 +$9 +5%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Apr 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 04 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 04 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 04 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Tottenham? Mar 30 $133 +$55 +42%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 28 $252 +$42 +16%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jun 02 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $140 −$26 -19%
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? Oct 29 $369 −$296 -80%
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? Oct 29 $77 +$15 +19%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa beat Everton? Sep 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? Sep 09 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Victor Osimhen join Chelsea? Sep 01 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 25¢ $72 57m
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 1h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 1h
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 92¢ $20 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 45¢ $10 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 28¢ $5 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 10d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 12d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 11¢ $78 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $36 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $38 19d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 24¢ $171 26d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 47¢ $88 26d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 37d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 58¢ $494 38d
Will Xabi Alonso be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? BUY No 1¢ $1 40d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 40d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $506 41d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? SELL No 22¢ $17 44d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? SELL No 32¢ $24 44d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 19¢ $24 46d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 38¢ $51 46d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY No 33¢ $51 48d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 50d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 50d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 79¢ $30 50d
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? SELL Yes 98¢ $300 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.49 · official $315.49 (match) · 108 history records