Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99f7…1a59 sports 738 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,977 (+26%) realized +$13,223 · open −$246
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%304W / 417L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day126.5pace
Fees−$883est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,778
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 -6.9% -15.7% 38% 37% -7.0%
≤30d 721 -2.1% -11.4% 42% 41% -2.0%
≤90d 721 -2.1% -11.4% 42% 41% -2.0%
all 721 -2.1% -11.4% 42% 41% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 41% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 39% -11.4%
15% -27.6% 36% -19.9%
20% -34.7% 29% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$42 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized+$13,223
Unrealized−$246
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses304 / 417
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$883
Open positions17
Markets (closed)721 / 738
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day126.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 721 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 33¢ 66¢ $87 $172 +$85 (+97%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage SPARTA 3¢ 50¢ $9 $148 +$140 (+1550%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 33¢ 48¢ $57 $85 +$28 (+48%)
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab Filip Drab 57¢ 71¢ $68 $84 +$16 (+24%)
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Felix Balshaw 47¢ 40¢ $46 $39 −$7 (-16%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 31¢ 56¢ $19 $35 +$16 (+81%)
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann Eva Bennemann 1¢ 1¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 53¢ 12¢ $29 $7 −$22 (-77%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Pavel Kotov 71¢ 8¢ $28 $3 −$25 (-89%)
ITF San Gregorio: Kiara Nina Kucikova vs Paula Ormaechea Kiara Nina Kucikova 2¢ 1¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-70%)
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Noa Vukadin 2¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-75%)
ITF Samobor: Luca Castagnola vs Nazar Oliynykov Nazar Oliynykov 54¢ 1¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 30¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 10¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$38 (-100%)
ITF San Gregorio: Francesca Gandolfi vs Vittoria Paganetti Francesca Gandolfi 32¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 21¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 31¢ 0¢ $113 $0 −$113 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $26 +$6 +24%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $139 −$53 -38%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $402 −$126 -31%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
ITF Klosters: Justin Schlageter vs Patrick Zahraj Jun 17 $54 −$8 -15%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $57 +$47 +82%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $176 +$26 +15%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $31 +$36 +114%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $52 −$6 -12%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $29 +$31 +106%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $28 +$26 +94%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $26 +$93 +354%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $28 +$11 +39%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $20 +$19 +96%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $28 +$38 +136%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $18 +$25 +141%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Kasidit Samrej vs Alberto Lim Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $56 +$76 +136%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $29 +$16 +54%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $287 +$201 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $93 −$83 -89%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $32 +$53 +163%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $58 +$142 +244%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $16 +$6 +39%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $401 +$284 +71%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
ITF Gyula: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Stefan Seifert Jun 16 $223 −$223 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $149 +$57 +38%
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jun 16 $57 +$53 +92%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $308 −$99 -32%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $41 −$30 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab BUY Filip Drab 51¢ $11 4m
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab BUY Filip Drab 51¢ $28 4m
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab BUY Filip Drab 68¢ $29 4m
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Felix Balshaw 38¢ $17 5m
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Felix Balshaw 54¢ $30 7m
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 53¢ $29 10m
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Stefanos Sakellaridis 99¢ $32 17m
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 80¢ $26 20m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 3¢ $2 24m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 3¢ $2 24m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 3¢ $2 24m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 3¢ $2 24m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 3¢ $2 24m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 3¢ $2 24m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 71¢ $28 26m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 24¢ $29 44m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 40¢ $30 44m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 42¢ $28 44m
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab SELL Filip Drab 99¢ $43 56m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 16¢ $24 56m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $35 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $50 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Francesca Gandolfi vs Vittoria Paganetti BUY Vittoria Paganetti 36¢ $27 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Francesca Gandolfi vs Vittoria Paganetti BUY Vittoria Paganetti 36¢ $27 1h
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab BUY Filip Drab 70¢ $8 1h
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab BUY Filip Drab 70¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $594.40 · official $594.58 (match) · 3500 history records