Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99fa…8bcf other 11 markets active 6d ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,051 (-87%) realized −$1,051 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$1,044
crypto 1% −$4
weather 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-85.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -81.6% -83.4% 0% 0% -62.1%
≤30d 11 -83.7% -85.2% 9% 9% -94.7%
≤90d 11 -83.7% -85.2% 9% 9% -94.7%
all 11 -83.7% -85.2% 9% 9% -94.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -85.2% 9% -94.7%
10% -86.6% 9% -95.2%
15% -87.9% 0% -95.7%
20% -89.1% 0% -96.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$106 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,051
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $64 −$28 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $105 −$47 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $314 −$300 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $382 −$365 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $205 −$195 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $52 −$50 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $31 −$30 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $34 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes $58 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $105 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $52 8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $105 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $157 8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $52 8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $52 8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $52 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $52 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $52 9d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $52 9d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $105 9d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records