Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:12:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
99 0x99fb…acba sports 425 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 293d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$31,378 (-3%) realized −$31,375 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%300W / 124L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,244per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$3,066est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,359
7 days−$1,896
14 days−$903
30 days−$3,531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$27,190
other 10% −$5,709
world 2% +$461
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -14.3% -22.5% 67% 33% -11.3%
≤30d 63 -3.0% -12.2% 73% 51% -10.2%
≤90d 216 -6.1% -15.0% 71% 42% -13.7%
all 424 -4.0% -13.1% 71% 43% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 43% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 22% -20.2%
15% -29.0% 8% -27.9%
20% -36.0% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$2,559) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$331 vs −$1,071 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized−$31,375
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses300 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$3,066
Open positions1
Markets (closed)424 / 425
History coverage294d ⚠
Avg bet$2,244
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $596 $593 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $570 +$29 +5%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $1,927 −$542 -28%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $1,045 +$54 +5%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $890 +$169 +19%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $1,596 −$735 -46%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $1,272 +$316 +25%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $359 −$356 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $353 −$348 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $646 +$54 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $674 +$435 +64%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $670 −$665 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,609 +$89 +6%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1,556 +$48 +3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $1,492 +$62 +4%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $1,183 +$310 +26%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $2,049 −$866 -42%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $1,253 +$707 +56%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $1,239 −$1,006 -81%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $912 +$97 +11%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $699 +$211 +30%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar Jun 13 $652 +$40 +6%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $1,050 +$217 +21%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $824 +$238 +29%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $632 +$158 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $666 +$289 +43%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $669 +$90 +14%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $661 −$661 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $672 +$688 +102%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $640 +$527 +82%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $918 +$280 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $855 +$94 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $1,478 +$112 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $666 +$73 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $857 +$7 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $774 +$85 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $635 +$102 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $1,146 −$1,136 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $976 +$83 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marina Bassols Ribera May 27 $1,208 +$160 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $1,061 +$138 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 26 $1,558 +$340 +22%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $1,572 +$12 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $1,031 +$518 +50%
Roland Garros WTA: Alycia Parks vs Leylah Fernandez May 25 $968 −$956 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Akasha Urhobo vs Katie Boulter May 25 $652 +$288 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $1,452 −$802 -55%
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul May 25 $1,183 +$294 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $1,197 −$7 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea May 25 $893 +$77 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 25 $24 +$5 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $63 52m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $536 53m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $599 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $570 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $573 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $3 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 90¢ $812 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 67¢ $538 4h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 67¢ $4 4h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 67¢ $89 4h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 67¢ $178 4h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 91¢ $82 4h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 92¢ $1,033 4h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $1,099 4h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Ugo Humbert 95¢ $817 4h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Ugo Humbert 95¢ $190 4h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Ugo Humbert 95¢ $38 4h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $1,059 5h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 84¢ $890 6h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 41¢ $848 6h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 41¢ $4 6h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 41¢ $8 6h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 76¢ $1,596 7h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $1,588 8h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $1,216 9h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $4 9h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $48 9h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $4 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $359 30h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $353 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $592.95 · official $592.95 (match) · 3474 history records