Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x99fc…ec26 sports 485 markets active 0h ago coverage 749d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,766 (-1%) realized −$3,094 · open +$328
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%222W / 261L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$539per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1,296est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,084
7 days−$3,361
14 days−$3,146
30 days−$2,110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,967
other 5% −$1,382
politics 0% −$258
crypto 0% +$114
culture 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 44% -33.1%
≤30d 50 -8.2% -16.9% 44% 44% -18.5%
≤90d 200 -8.4% -17.2% 51% 44% -8.9%
all 483 -8.1% -16.8% 46% 41% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 41% -10.9%
10% -24.8% 36% -19.4%
15% -32.0% 30% -27.2%
20% -38.7% 25% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$192 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

749d coverage
Net worth$1,461
Realized−$3,094
Unrealized+$328
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses222 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,296
Open positions2
Markets (closed)483 / 485
History coverage749d
Avg bet$539
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Brandon Nakashima 62¢ 78¢ $630 $798 +$168 (+27%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 58¢ 76¢ $503 $663 +$160 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $523 −$517 -99%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 19 $167 +$263 +158%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $254 −$254 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $191 −$188 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $231 +$54 +23%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $1,035 −$1,020 -99%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) Jun 19 $400 +$174 +44%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $473 −$473 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $321 +$153 +48%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $189 +$132 +70%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $534 −$534 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $580 −$47 -8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,255 −$674 -54%
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $477 −$477 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $898 +$356 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $997 +$480 +48%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $272 −$272 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $261 +$765 +294%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $274 −$264 -96%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $642 +$165 +26%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 17 $410 −$410 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $213 +$198 +93%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $734 −$734 -100%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $291 +$53 +18%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $185 +$106 +57%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $314 −$314 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $203 +$290 +142%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $135 +$74 +54%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $82 +$154 +188%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $61 +$120 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 29 $254 −$254 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $178 +$335 +189%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 28 $1,323 −$496 -38%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 28 $356 −$356 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $509 +$654 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $814 +$1,049 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul May 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 26 $204 −$204 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 23 $201 −$201 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 22 $1,211 −$1,211 -100%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 21 $1,013 +$767 +76%
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien May 21 $1,522 +$1,416 +93%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $56 +$41 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 58¢ $509 12m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 62¢ $637 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 59¢ $523 19h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) SELL Altmaier 100¢ $430 19h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 40¢ $191 20h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Tommy Paul 88¢ $286 20h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 70¢ $231 20h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 52¢ $1,035 21h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 38¢ $167 23h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 45¢ $254 23h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 12¢ $154 23h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) BUY Shelton 69¢ $400 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $473 37h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $473 37h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $321 38h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $321 38h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $189 40h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 66¢ $534 43h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 38¢ $532 43h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 39¢ $580 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 25¢ $0 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 26¢ $581 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $465 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $790 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $898 2d
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $477 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1,477 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $997 2d
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,460.76 · official $1,481.08 · 1227 history records