Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:02:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99fe…b61c sports 827 markets active 2h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,254 (-8%) realized −$6,137 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%345W / 466L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$372est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$617
7 days−$591
14 days−$302
30 days−$2,128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$6,550
other 4% −$555
culture 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -11.2% -19.7% 46% 46% -24.0%
≤30d 136 -8.6% -17.3% 43% 43% -20.9%
≤90d 219 -12.5% -20.8% 41% 41% -24.9%
all 811 -7.7% -16.5% 43% 42% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 42% -17.5%
10% -24.5% 42% -25.4%
15% -31.8% 41% -32.6%
20% -38.4% 37% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$88 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$1,304
Realized−$6,137
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses345 / 466
Est. fees paid−$372
Open positions16
Markets (closed)811 / 827
History coverage187d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $330 $232 −$98 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 40¢ 42¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 68¢ $148 $142 −$6 (-4%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $75 $138 +$62 (+83%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $120 $125 +$5 (+4%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 59¢ 60¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Leviatán Esports 56¢ 53¢ $120 $114 −$6 (-5%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 32¢ 30¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-5%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $20 $50 +$30 (+152%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $56 $28 −$28 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $20 −$14 (-41%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $29 $4 −$25 (-87%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $35 $2 −$33 (-94%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 444 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $200 −$197 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $114 −$112 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $410 −$400 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $109 +$91 +83%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $170 +$130 +76%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 +$9 +18%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $138 +$202 +146%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $59 +$101 +170%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $117 −$115 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $153 +$137 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $132 +$118 +90%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $114 +$116 +101%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $60 +$46 +77%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $64 +$86 +134%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $188 +$112 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $174 −$172 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $247 +$113 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $147 −$145 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $97 −$96 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $178 +$172 +97%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $137 +$163 +119%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $127 +$73 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $123 +$77 +62%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $25 +$75 +307%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$147 +276%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $103 +$97 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $178 −$177 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $165 +$238 +144%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $47 +$93 +197%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $67 +$147 +220%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $181 +$79 +44%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 12 $82 −$81 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $72 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $244 +$256 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $174 +$176 +101%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $74 +$46 +62%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $197 +$103 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $149 −$148 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $92 +$208 +226%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $131 +$89 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 32¢ $82 2h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $122 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $204 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $200 16h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 28h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 45¢ $114 36h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 59¢ $105 2d
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 59¢ $7 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $82 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $328 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 2d
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 59¢ $6 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $109 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $101 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 56¢ $170 4d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $62 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $138 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 43¢ $1 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 43¢ $15 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 43¢ $13 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 43¢ $27 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 43¢ $0 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $117 6d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $106 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $57 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,304.40 · official $1,304.40 (match) · 1849 history records