Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9A 0x9a03…4066 sports 123 markets active 1d ago coverage 28d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1,747 (+43%) realized +$1,746 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%75W / 46L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$514
7 days+$543
14 days+$940
30 days+$1,693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,200
other 11% +$494
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +69.3% +53.1% 59% 59% +54.5%
≤30d 121 +27.7% +15.6% 62% 62% +28.3%
≤90d 121 +27.7% +15.6% 62% 62% +28.3%
all 121 +27.7% +15.6% 62% 62% +28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 62% +28.3%
10% +4.5% 60% +16.0%
15% -5.6% 60% +4.8%
20% -14.8% 55% -5.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$19 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$1,746
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses75 / 46
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage28d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 59¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Under 62¢ 65¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jaminton Campaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $31 +$207 +672%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 17 $31 +$185 +602%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $64 +$36 +56%
Ivan Toney: 1+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Kristian Thorstvedt: 5+ shots Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$18 +18%
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $30 +$32 +105%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $25 +$26 +101%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $15 +$14 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 +$6 +188%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $181 −$1 -1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $25 +$30 +119%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $3 +$5 +172%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $15 +$10 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 11 $25 +$13 +52%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $10 +$9 +90%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $15 +$6 +42%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $10 +$9 +93%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5 Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $10 +$11 +105%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $10 +$7 +65%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Jun 07 $10 +$10 +97%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) Jun 07 $10 +$10 +97%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 07 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 +$3 +62%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 07 $15 +$11 +70%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 07 $15 +$17 +109%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $15 +$11 +70%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $5 +$7 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ivan Toney: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $26 24h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 63¢ $64 27h
Jaminton Campaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $31 30h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $31 30h
Kristian Thorstvedt: 5+ shots BUY No 49¢ $102 40h
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $10 44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $100 46h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $10 3d
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 50¢ $10 3d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 69¢ $25 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 48¢ $15 4d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 49¢ $25 4d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 47¢ $20 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $3 4d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 52¢ $15 4d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 52¢ $10 5d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 48¢ $30 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $180 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos BUY No 52¢ $20 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $181 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 43¢ $10 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 6d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 59¢ $10 6d
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY No 59¢ $15 7d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY Yes 65¢ $25 7d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ $10 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 36¢ $3 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $10 8d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.42 · official $21.42 (match) · 212 history records