Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a04…e4f2 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$4
other 40% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.4% 15% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 13 -0.9% -10.4% 15% 0% -10.4%
all 29 -3.7% -12.9% 21% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage469d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $35 −$3 -10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $67 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 French Open? May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $12 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 $0 +3%
Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $13 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $13 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $13 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 11 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $30 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $30 3h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $13 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $17 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $2 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $31 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $27 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $27 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $16 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $17 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $16 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $33 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $2 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 18d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $11 18d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $11 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records