trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 15% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 15% | 0% | -10.4% |
| all | 29 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 21% | 0% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.9% | 0% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -21.2% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -28.9% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | Jun 23 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $35 | −$3 | -10% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $53 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $65 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 06 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 04 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 04 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 30 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 30 | $67 | −$1 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 29 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 29 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 29 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 French Open? | May 28 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? | May 22 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? | May 19 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 08 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 07 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7? | Apr 07 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 07 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in March? | Apr 02 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 30 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 26 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 21 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 11 | $13 | $0 | -0% |