Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9a05…7a7b
sports · 187 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$58 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$110 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$91
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses68 / 101
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions18
Markets (closed)169 / 187
History coverage21d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day161.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 18 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$185
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 49¢ 80¢ $33 $54 +$21 (+62%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 52¢ 20¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-61%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+79%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 68¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Travis Kelce retire before next season? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 12¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +166%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $8 −$5 -67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 05 $175 −$175 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 04 $31 −$31 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $5 +$1 +19%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $2 $0 -14%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 03 $2 $0 -3%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $1 $0 -3%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $3 $0 -3%
Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 03 $267 −$9 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1 +$1 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $1 +$8 +786%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $7 −$1 -14%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $87 +$81 +93%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $36 −$14 -38%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $17 $0 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $45 +$3 +6%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $6 +$6 +92%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 01 $2 $0 +13%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) Jun 01 $4 −$2 -57%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 31 $13 −$11 -80%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $4 +$5 +127%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $25 +$9 +36%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $252 −$29 -11%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 31 $21 −$3 -14%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 30 $5 −$1 -18%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $31 +$8 +25%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 30 $6 −$5 -76%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 30 $3 −$2 -51%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $11 +$3 +23%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $20 −$12 -58%
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $103 +$35 +34%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $27 −$11 -38%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $3 +$1 +24%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $17 +$1 +8%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 30 $8 −$2 -25%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 29 $2 +$2 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% −$113
other 3% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $1 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $1 2h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 3d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 5d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 5d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $0 7d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $1 9d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $1 9d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $1 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $1 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $1 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $1 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $1 9d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $1 9d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $1 9d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $1 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $1 9d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $1 9d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $1 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $1 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $1 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $1 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.2% -32.3% 25% 25% -56.2%
≤30d 169 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 34% -13.9%
≤90d 169 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 34% -13.9%
all 169 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 34% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover161.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 34% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 31% -22.1%
15% -29.8% 26% -29.7%
20% -36.7% 20% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.43 · official $90.81 (match) · 3500 history records