Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9A 0x9a05…333f sports 16 markets active 2d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$115 (+8%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$11
other 50% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.6% -9.0% 69% 69% -2.8%
≤30d 16 +0.6% -9.0% 69% 69% -2.8%
≤90d 16 +0.6% -9.0% 69% 69% -2.8%
all 16 +0.6% -9.0% 69% 69% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 69% -2.8%
10% -17.7% 56% -12.1%
15% -25.6% 38% -20.6%
20% -32.9% 6% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$62 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 78¢ $101 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $101 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 74¢ $101 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 3d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $101 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 71¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 66¢ $101 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $101 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $10 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records