Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:56:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9a06…c03d sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-22%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$12
other 23% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -23.5% -30.8% 40% 40% -12.7%
≤30d 5 -23.5% -30.8% 40% 40% -12.7%
≤90d 5 -23.5% -30.8% 40% 40% -12.7%
all 5 -23.5% -30.8% 40% 40% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 40% -12.7%
10% -37.4% 40% -21.0%
15% -43.5% 40% -28.7%
20% -49.0% 20% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $17 −$12 -70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$17 +82%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$15 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 40m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $25 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 20¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $17 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records