Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:10:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a07…04e1 crypto 580 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-2%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%230W / 350L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$61
14 days+$48
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$137
sports 7% +$10
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -4.4% -13.5% 47% 47% -7.6%
≤30d 331 -5.2% -14.2% 47% 47% -9.1%
≤90d 580 -3.7% -12.9% 40% 40% -12.1%
all 580 -3.7% -12.9% 40% 40% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 40% -12.1%
10% -21.2% 40% -20.5%
15% -28.8% 39% -28.2%
20% -35.8% 39% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses230 / 350
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)580 / 580
History coverage41d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 580 Trades
no open positions (348 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$10 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $73 +$58 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$12 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$25 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$45 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$53 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$37 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $73 +$58 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$65 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $78 +$68 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$57 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $69 +$53 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$57 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $46 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $73 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $77 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $78 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $59 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 931 history records