Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a0a…48a2 other 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-36%) realized −$240 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$148
world 22% −$32
other 10% −$19
sports 8% +$6
finance 6% −$38
economics 2% −$14
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +93.1% +74.7% 49% 46% -14.1%
≤30d 66 +20.0% +8.6% 30% 29% -27.9%
≤90d 134 -35.9% -42.0% 18% 16% -48.0%
all 134 -35.9% -42.0% 18% 16% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.0% 16% -48.0%
10% -47.5% 16% -53.0%
15% -52.6% 16% -57.5%
20% -57.3% 13% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -90% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$240
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 110
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions41
Markets (closed)134 / 175
History coverage53d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 100¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+737%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 44¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+309%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+235%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 10¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$10 +1036%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1310%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 49m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $50 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 36h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 36h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 36h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 36h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 36h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 36h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 36h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 36h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.85 · official $72.85 (match) · 219 history records