Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9a0d…c699 sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+2%) realized +$31 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%36W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$210
14 days−$169
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$50
tech 28% −$12
sports 21% −$25
world 1% +$6
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -37.3% -43.3% 35% 35% -36.8%
≤30d 82 -9.1% -17.8% 40% 40% -14.2%
≤90d 85 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 42% -13.9%
all 85 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 42% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 42% -13.9%
10% -24.5% 41% -22.1%
15% -31.8% 35% -29.6%
20% -38.5% 25% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1,092
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses36 / 49
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)85 / 90
History coverage92d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $500 $560 +$60 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $400 $411 +$11 (+3%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 −$21 -52%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $30 −$2 -8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$32 +158%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$10 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$24 +238%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$23 +152%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $22 +$33 +147%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $36 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 6h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 6h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $409 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $409 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 65¢ $28 39h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 44h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 44h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 69¢ $30 2d
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 66¢ $30 3d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 4d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $20 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $10 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,091.57 · official $1,091.57 (match) · 149 history records