Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a10…ffe8 world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$6
other 21% +$2
politics 10% +$2
sports 8% −$13
crypto 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 17 -4.9% -13.9% 41% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 17 -4.9% -13.9% 41% 0% -8.6%
all 56 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage255d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $91 +$2 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $57 +$4 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $117 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $125 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $107 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $88 −$4 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $62 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $36 +$2 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $16 −$3 -18%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $52 $0 -0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Oct 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 12 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $45 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $20 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $46 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $13 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $38 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $19 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $3 42h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $22 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $20 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $19 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 81¢ $22 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $34 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $48 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.36 · official $0.00 · 257 history records