Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a12…2bd7 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$184 (+10%) realized +$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%36W / 21L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day117.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$45
other 3% +$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -0.5% -10.0% 63% 54% -2.6%
≤30d 57 -0.5% -10.0% 63% 54% -2.6%
≤90d 57 -0.5% -10.0% 63% 54% -2.6%
all 57 -0.5% -10.0% 63% 54% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 54% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 39% -11.9%
15% -26.5% 25% -20.5%
20% -33.7% 16% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses36 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day117.7
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $36 +$32 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $77 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$3 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $46 +$151 +329%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$27 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $56 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $82 +$53 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $88 +$31 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $94 +$32 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$39 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $46 −$10 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $83 −$45 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$7 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $84 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records