Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

9A 0x9a15…5ce5 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$173 (-48%) realized −$172 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-22.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	5	-13.9%	-22.1%	20%	20%	-78.9%
all	5	-13.9%	-22.1%	20%	20%	-78.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.1%	20%	-78.9%
10%	-29.6%	20%	-81.0%
15%	-36.4%	20%	-82.8%
20%	-42.6%	20%	-84.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -77% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$53 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.17 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage

Net worth$129

Realized−$172

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions4

Markets (closed)5 / 9

History coverage55d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	17¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Spread: France (-1.5)	France	42¢	40¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Apr 30	$15	+$36	+235%
Knicks vs. Hawks	Apr 29	$100	−$100	-100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	Apr 29	$1	$0	-5%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	Apr 29	$10	−$10	-98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Apr 22	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	42¢	$10	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	1h
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	50¢	$1	47d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	51¢	$1	48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	48d
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	BUY Yes	29¢	$15	48d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	51¢	$100	55d
Knicks vs. Hawks	BUY Knicks	51¢	$100	55d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.91 · official $128.96 (match) · 12 history records