Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a16…cb2a crypto 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$307 (-6%) realized −$305 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%60W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$376
7 days−$376
14 days−$381
30 days−$409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$409
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -20.4% -28.0% 38% 27% -42.3%
≤30d 115 -12.2% -20.6% 52% 37% -16.9%
≤90d 115 -12.2% -20.6% 52% 37% -16.9%
all 115 -12.2% -20.6% 52% 37% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 37% -16.9%
10% -28.2% 33% -24.9%
15% -35.1% 27% -32.1%
20% -41.5% 22% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$30 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses60 / 55
Open positions3
Markets (closed)115 / 118
History coverage18d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 82¢ 83¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$83 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$16 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$30 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$54 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 02 $61 +$27 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 02 $77 +$56 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 01 $103 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 01 $52 +$61 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 01 $52 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 01 $77 +$50 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 01 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 01 $52 −$15 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 01 $52 +$38 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 24m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $31 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 40m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.34 · official $45.34 (match) · 310 history records