Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:47:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a16…1129 crypto 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%51W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$336
7 days−$343
14 days−$343
30 days−$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$121
other 20% −$308
sports 9% −$15
politics 0% +$13
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -76.6% -78.9% 8% 8% -52.3%
≤30d 13 -76.6% -78.9% 8% 8% -52.3%
≤90d 26 +48.4% +34.3% 23% 23% -24.5%
all 130 -2.0% -11.3% 39% 34% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 34% -20.2%
10% -19.8% 29% -27.8%
15% -27.6% 23% -34.8%
20% -34.7% 19% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$24 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses51 / 79
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage170d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$28 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$5 -16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $338 −$10 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 11 $5 +$19 +358%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 11 $26 +$47 +180%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 11 $27 −$27 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 11 $24 +$109 +450%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 11 $5 +$41 +772%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 11 $5 +$61 +1149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Apr 07 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 01 $7 −$7 -94%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 01 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 24 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 19 $111 +$326 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 10AM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 19 $86 −$40 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 19 $436 +$120 +27%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 19 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 19 $27 +$55 +208%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Feb 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 19 $56 +$106 +189%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 19 $20 +$63 +313%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 19 $2 +$2 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $55 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $329 44h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $338 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 41¢ $339 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $381 45h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $24 43d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $74 43d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 43d
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 43d
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $24 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 533 history records