Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a17…e2ff other 213 markets active 5h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%24W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$8
other 25% −$10
sports 22% −$7
crypto 8% −$4
economics 5% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.9% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 79 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 124 -0.7% -10.1% 9% 0% -10.0%
all 212 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses24 / 188
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)212 / 213
History coverage153d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $78 −$1 -2%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $165 −$2 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $9 $0 -5%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $24 −$1 -3%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 11 $16 $0 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -1%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $17 $0 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $124 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $9 $0 -5%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $21 $0 +1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $13 $0 -3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $136 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 4h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 89¢ $9 5h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $10 9h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $10 10h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $10 14h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $11 14h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $11 22h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $14 23h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $14 28h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $15 28h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $15 32h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $10 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $10 41h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 42h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $11 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $11 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $14 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $14 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $16 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $16 2d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $6 2d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $6 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $8 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $8 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $8 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 4d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.23 · official $16.23 (match) · 854 history records