Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9A 0x9a1a…3ca8 finance 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$183 (+6%) realized +$184 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate79%66W / 18L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$58
14 days+$93
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 82% +$163
world 8% +$39
other 5% +$5
crypto 2% −$7
economics 1% +$4
tech 1% −$29
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 30% -2.8%
≤30d 37 +7.4% -2.8% 89% 32% -3.1%
≤90d 59 +3.8% -6.1% 80% 32% -4.2%
all 84 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 30% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 30% -4.5%
10% -16.6% 12% -13.6%
15% -24.7% 2% -22.0%
20% -32.1% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$184
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses66 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage123d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 26? No 95¢ 97¢ $48 $48 +$1 (+2%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 26? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 25? Jun 25 $36 +$4 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 25? Jun 25 $115 +$15 +13%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 25? Jun 25 $80 +$4 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 24? Jun 24 $79 +$11 +14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 24? Jun 24 $75 +$5 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 24? Jun 24 $76 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? Jun 23 $97 +$7 +7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? Jun 23 $100 +$5 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 22? Jun 22 $76 +$4 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 22? Jun 22 $46 +$4 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 18? Jun 18 $70 +$3 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$9 +17%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 18? Jun 18 $60 +$6 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? Jun 16 $80 +$3 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$2 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$9 +23%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$5 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 12? Jun 12 $60 −$1 -2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 9? Jun 09 $60 +$3 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? Jun 09 $60 +$7 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$6 +12%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$11 +21%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 4? Jun 04 $60 −$1 -2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 3? Jun 03 $44 +$6 +14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 3? Jun 03 $39 −$3 -7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 2? Jun 03 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Lewis Hall be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $19 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 1? Jun 02 $40 +$2 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 1? Jun 02 $40 +$2 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 29? May 29 $40 +$4 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on May 29? May 29 $50 +$2 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 28? May 29 $30 +$2 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 27? May 27 $30 +$7 +24%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 27 $58 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 27? May 27 $35 +$3 +7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 26? May 26 $25 +$4 +17%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 26? May 26 $28 +$1 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 26? May 26 $25 −$1 -5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? May 25 $30 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $20 +$5 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 24 $20 −$2 -12%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 22? May 22 $25 +$7 +27%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 22? May 22 $25 −$3 -11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 20? May 20 $25 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 20? May 20 $25 −$3 -13%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 19? May 20 $20 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 19? May 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 19 $10 −$9 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 25? BUY Yes 90¢ $22 20h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 25? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 20h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 25? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 20h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 25? BUY Yes 92¢ $74 20h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $80 20h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 24? SELL No 96¢ $77 43h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 24? BUY Yes 85¢ $34 44h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 24? BUY Yes 90¢ $22 45h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 24? BUY Yes 90¢ $23 45h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $40 47h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $36 47h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 24? BUY Yes 94¢ $75 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $100 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $70 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 22? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $29 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $60 7d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 8d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $70 8d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $50 9d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $80 10d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 10d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 10d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $90 11d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 12? SELL No 85¢ $27 13d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $60 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.47 · official $93.50 (match) · 188 history records