Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9A 0x9a1c…b33c crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%44W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$6
crypto 9% +$1
other 4% $0
sports 2% −$4
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 61 -0.5% -10.0% 72% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses44 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage535d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in March? Apr 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $43 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 04 $52 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 06 $6 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Wells win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 13 $21 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the People's party win the most seats in the next Canadian electi Mar 19 $5,561 −$6 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $425 - 430b on February 28? Mar 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.25 by February 28 2025? Mar 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Jackson be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Feb 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 19 $23 $0 -0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Feb 19 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $49 63d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 93d
Will BNB reach $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 93d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 123d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 123d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $35 151d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $7 181d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $11 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $38 182d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $43 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 241d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $37 242d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 99¢ $8 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 100¢ $21 274d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $27 274d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 301d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus BUY Yes 100¢ $29 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 334d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 367d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 367d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.33 · official $55.33 (match) · 128 history records