Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a1e…0a03 sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$127 (+9%) realized +$1 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%14W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day123.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$108
other 37% +$97
world 6% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 +30.9% +18.4% 9% 9% -9.6%
≤30d 156 +30.9% +18.4% 9% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 156 +30.9% +18.4% 9% 9% -9.6%
all 156 +30.9% +18.4% 9% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.4% 9% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here +7.1% 9% -18.3%
15% -3.3% 9% -26.2%
20% -12.8% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -81% → late +143% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$9 · ×10.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses14 / 142
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions8
Markets (closed)156 / 164
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day123.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes 7¢ 100¢ $10 $143 +$133 (+1328%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$133 +1290%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$133 +1329%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -97%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$133 +1329%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$66 +1319%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 +$67 +1521%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$66 +1318%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$66 +1290%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$78 +1521%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 43m
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 7¢ $2 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 7¢ $0 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 7¢ $8 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 7¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 4h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 6¢ $10 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 4h
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 6¢ $10 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 6¢ $9 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 7¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.80 · official $204.80 (match) · 243 history records