Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9a1f…8574 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$6 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$16
crypto 36% −$45
sports 16% +$40
politics 7% −$1
world 5% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -19.7% -27.4% 45% 41% -12.2%
≤30d 29 -19.7% -27.4% 45% 41% -12.2%
≤90d 29 -19.7% -27.4% 45% 41% -12.2%
all 37 -4.6% -13.7% 46% 43% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 43% -10.9%
10% -21.9% 43% -19.4%
15% -29.5% 32% -27.2%
20% -36.4% 16% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage268d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 +$19 +170%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 13 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $17 +$23 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-21? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-20? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $56 −$56 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$14 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$9 +45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 08 $77 −$5 -7%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 30 $7 −$1 -19%
Broncos vs. Chargers Sep 23 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Trump say "Charlie / Kirk" 15+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Eve Sep 21 $1 $0 -36%
Will Arsenal vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Sep 21 $1 +$2 +234%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $4 −$4 -88%
Will Brighton vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Sep 20 $2 +$4 +222%
Nothing Ever Happens: September Sep 20 $2 $0 -14%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $5 +$3 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $8 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 88¢ $22 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $1 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 28h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 49¢ $12 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $17 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 52¢ $3 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 67¢ $15 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 7¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $2 4d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 44¢ $2 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $4 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 58¢ $6 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 4d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 44¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.17 · official $76.17 (match) · 129 history records