Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9A 0x9a23…0e0c crypto 1299 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 123d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-1%) realized −$16 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate68%872W / 418L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$66
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$92
sports 21% −$250
other 15% +$234
tech 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -16.7% -24.7% 44% 29% -7.3%
≤30d 48 -16.7% -24.7% 44% 29% -7.3%
≤90d 48 -16.7% -24.7% 44% 29% -7.3%
all 1290 -0.3% -9.8% 68% 67% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 67% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 66% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 64% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses872 / 418
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1290 / 1299
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 59¢ 70¢ $154 $183 +$29 (+19%)
ITF Rzeszow: Stefan Seifert vs Herman Hoeyeraal Herman Hoeyeraal 88¢ 51¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 73¢ 82¢ $38 $43 +$4 (+11%)
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Inaki Montes 85¢ 60¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 75¢ 72¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 54¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 89¢ 4¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tarvisio: Deborah Chiesa vs Radka Zelnickova Jun 27 $100 +$7 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $90 +$14 +15%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$10 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $52 +$6 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $225 +$3 +2%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 27 $28 −$18 -62%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $250 +$22 +9%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $8 $0 +0%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $227 +$15 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $301 +$80 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $222 +$82 +37%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $36 −$34 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 24 $324 +$152 +47%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $18 −$1 -4%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$1 -5%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$1 -3%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $31 −$1 -4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $14 −$5 -34%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$10 -48%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$11 -52%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Uzbekistan vs Indonesia Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$1 -6%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 -0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$1 -5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$10 +101%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$1 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $10 +$2 +23%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$3 +31%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$12 +114%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$15 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 75¢ $30 32m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 85¢ $50 32m
ITF Tarvisio: Deborah Chiesa vs Radka Zelnickova SELL Deborah Chiesa 100¢ $2 55m
ITF Tarvisio: Deborah Chiesa vs Radka Zelnickova SELL Deborah Chiesa 100¢ $105 1h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 89¢ $30 1h
ITF Rzeszow: Stefan Seifert vs Herman Hoeyeraal BUY Herman Hoeyeraal 88¢ $100 1h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, SELL Daniil Donchenko 100¢ $114 1h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Daniil Donchenko 88¢ $100 1h
ITF Tarvisio: Deborah Chiesa vs Radka Zelnickova BUY Deborah Chiesa 93¢ $100 1h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 1h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 1h
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $90 2h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 57¢ $30 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 89¢ $50 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 100¢ $228 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 90¢ $2 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 98¢ $25 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 98¢ $200 3h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 10h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $272 10h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $250 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $242 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $8 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $150 11h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 94¢ $227 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $180 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.51 · official $374.72 (match) · 3500 history records