Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a25…c454 crypto 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-4%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate70%193W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$63
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -9.7% -18.3% 80% 33% -18.2%
≤30d 274 -6.0% -14.9% 70% 45% -14.4%
≤90d 274 -6.0% -14.9% 70% 45% -14.4%
all 274 -6.0% -14.9% 70% 45% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 45% -14.4%
10% -23.1% 21% -22.6%
15% -30.5% 6% -30.1%
20% -37.3% 3% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses193 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)274 / 274
History coverage23d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 274 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 06 $12 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 574 history records