Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a28…f71a other 294 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$207 (-4%) realized −$209 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate20%59W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days−$176
14 days−$176
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$760
world 18% −$245
politics 16% −$332
crypto 12% −$383
economics 6% −$110
sports 5% −$22
tech 1% −$33
finance 0% −$12
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.0% -34.9% 50% 50% -95.0%
≤30d 2 -28.0% -34.9% 50% 50% -95.0%
≤90d 2 -28.0% -34.9% 50% 50% -95.0%
all 292 -31.0% -37.6% 20% 17% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 17% -16.4%
10% -43.5% 16% -24.4%
15% -49.0% 13% -31.7%
20% -54.0% 12% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$8 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses59 / 233
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)292 / 294
History coverage274d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 32¢ 34¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $184 −$179 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 17? Feb 17 $8 +$7 +78%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 12? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 12? Feb 12 $16 +$29 +181%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 8 Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 7 Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 11 $92 −$21 -23%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 06 $102 −$11 -11%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5? Feb 04 $8 −$3 -41%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 04 $66 −$31 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 04 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 04 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 03 $2 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 02 $9 −$5 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 01 $3 +$1 +20%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 31 $10 −$4 -44%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? Jan 31 $3 −$1 -18%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $103 −$36 -35%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $5 −$3 -58%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Jan 31 $23 −$2 -7%
Will fewer than 5 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next governmen Jan 29 $4 $0 -8%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $4 +$1 +13%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Jan 29 $93 −$15 -16%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jan 29 $2 +$4 +220%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during remarks on January 28? Jan 29 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $85 −$39 -46%
Will Trump say "Buy a Dell Computer" during remarks on January 28? Jan 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31? Jan 29 $309 −$15 -5%
Will Trump say "CFTC" during remarks on January 28? Jan 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 27 $20 −$9 -44%
Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31? Jan 27 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 26 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 26 $283 +$95 +33%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Trump say "Jail" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5? Dec 12 $6 −$6 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $48 −$18 -38%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? Dec 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 32¢ $49 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 1¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $28 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $103 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 10¢ $10 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 6d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 122d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 17? SELL No 10¢ $15 123d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 17? BUY No 6¢ $8 123d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 12? SELL No 44¢ $4 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 12? SELL No 44¢ $4 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 12? SELL No 23¢ $23 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 12? BUY No 8¢ $2 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 12? BUY No 8¢ $0 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 12? BUY No 11¢ $11 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 12? SELL No 12¢ $12 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 12? BUY No 3¢ $3 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 128d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 134d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 8 BUY Yes 3¢ $3 134d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 7 BUY Yes 3¢ $3 134d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $71 134d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $91 134d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $78 134d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $102 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.06 · official $50.06 (match) · 821 history records