Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a31…0b12 politics 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$854 (+0%) realized +$854 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%40W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,637per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$16
14 days−$35
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$155
other 42% −$202
sports 7% +$1,131
world 2% −$2
economics 2% −$5
culture 1% −$5
tech 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 +1.8% -7.9% 12% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 116 +1.4% -8.2% 9% 5% -9.1%
all 173 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 10% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 10% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 9% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,362) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$18 · ×4.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized+$854
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses40 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)173 / 175
History coverage157d
Avg bet$1,637
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $340 $340 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $162 $163 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 29 $1,453 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $2,302 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $3,332 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 25 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $456 −$1 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 24 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $3,236 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $2,080 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,728 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $1,264 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,961 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,877 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $164 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6,614 −$7 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,170 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,301 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,327 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,425 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $842 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 08 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $6,587 −$8 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $68 +$50 +73%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,090 −$3 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 05 $56 +$30 +55%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $941 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5,731 −$6 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $977 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,146 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $5,719 −$6 -0%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 02 $68 +$44 +65%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 01 $448 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $330 +$1 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $7,190 −$8 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $252 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,876 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 30 $3,563 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,796 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $340 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $310 4h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $311 8h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 2d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $452 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $452 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $573 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $574 4d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $456 4d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $456 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $473 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $473 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $484 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $484 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $582 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $583 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $576 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $576 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $539 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $540 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $162 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $687 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $688 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $431 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $432 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $576 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $577 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $685 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $686 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.59 · official $502.59 (match) · 660 history records