Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:19:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a33…0bea world 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$9
sports 34% −$5
other 18% $0
politics 8% −$1
finance 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 25 -0.0% -9.5% 24% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 43 -2.6% -11.9% 21% 5% -9.8%
all 61 -9.7% -18.3% 31% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 10% -9.9%
10% -26.1% 2% -18.5%
15% -33.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -39.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 42
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage527d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $76 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $113 −$8 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $37 +$8 +21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $80 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $58 −$2 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $81 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $80 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $31 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $21 −$2 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $44 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3 −$2 -60%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $230 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $261 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $252 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $230 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $246 −$2 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $4 $0 -7%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $254 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 19 $3 +$1 +21%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $7 $0 +6%
Will Stephon Castle win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest? Mar 04 $7 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $27 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 78¢ $34 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $34 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $23 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $21 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $13 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $14 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $22 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.06 · official $33.35 (match) · 197 history records