Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:17:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a37…9a35 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$966 (+19%) realized +$968 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$638
14 days+$630
30 days+$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$500
sports 24% +$226
crypto 6% +$261
world 4% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.9% -6.9% 47% 47% +15.2%
≤30d 19 +2.2% -7.5% 47% 47% +12.3%
≤90d 23 +7.3% -2.9% 48% 48% +16.5%
all 24 +2.8% -7.0% 46% 46% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 46% +7.1%
10% -15.9% 46% -3.1%
15% -24.0% 46% -12.5%
20% -31.5% 46% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$146 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$968
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage226d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 35¢ 34¢ $105 $103 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $118 +$115 +98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $14 −$3 -21%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $96 −$71 -74%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $147 +$153 +104%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $200 −$83 -41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $390 +$497 +127%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$98 +96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $69 −$52 -75%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 +$261 +86%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $260 −$256 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$94 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 +$165 +81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $504 +$483 +96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $327 −$327 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $199 −$164 -82%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $296 +$254 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $176 −$172 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $102 −$97 -94%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $100 +$226 +226%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $500 +$464 +93%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 06 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $105 52m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $232 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 9h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $118 10h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 10h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 13¢ $25 11h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 48¢ $96 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $99 18h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 18h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $14 18h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 18h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $6 18h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 18h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 18h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $117 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $194 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $200 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $499 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 78¢ $387 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $3 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $9 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $6 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $30 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.47 · official $103.50 (match) · 84 history records