Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a39…6da5 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-4%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$25
other 12% $0
politics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -8.7% -17.4% 8% 0% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -13.0%
10% -25.3% 0% -21.4%
15% -32.5% 0% -29.0%
20% -39.1% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage558d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Lakers 33¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $2 $0 +0%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Jul 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? May 10 $0 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $1 $0 -17%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Apr 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 04 $464 $0 +0%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 04 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 24d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 24d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $7 51d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $7 51d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 79d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 79d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 92d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 92d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 104d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 114d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 142d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 142d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 178d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 178d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 204d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 204d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 231d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 231d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 262d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 262d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 293d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 294d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 332d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 332d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 332d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 366d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 367d
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes $1 400d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records