Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a39…a634 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+25%) realized +$43 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$38
sports 16% −$17
crypto 15% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -18.8% -26.5% 50% 50% +23.3%
≤30d 8 -18.8% -26.5% 50% 50% +23.3%
≤90d 8 -18.8% -26.5% 50% 50% +23.3%
all 8 -18.8% -26.5% 50% 50% +23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 50% +23.3%
10% -33.6% 50% +11.5%
15% -40.0% 50% +0.7%
20% -45.9% 38% -9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$18 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 +$11 +59%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $14 +$9 +69%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $38 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.14 · official $54.14 (match) · 18 history records