Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a3b…b968 sports 1319 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 238d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,783 (-2%) realized −$7,930 · open +$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate64%841W / 471L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1,674est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$1,271
14 days−$1,057
30 days−$2,501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$6,852
other 8% −$1,202
crypto 1% −$505
world 1% +$32
culture 0% +$381
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 53% -14.0%
≤30d 393 -3.6% -12.8% 66% 54% -11.9%
≤90d 1069 -9.6% -18.2% 60% 47% -17.6%
all 1312 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 51% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 51% -11.7%
10% -20.1% 38% -20.1%
15% -27.9% 27% -27.9%
20% -34.9% 17% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$151 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$947
Realized−$7,930
Unrealized+$147
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses841 / 471
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,674
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1312 / 1319
History coverage238d ⚠
Avg bet$254
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $200 $294 +$94 (+47%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 58¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Under 68¢ 90¢ $100 $133 +$33 (+33%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 87¢ 100¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 57¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $102 +$107 +105%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $101 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$206 +188%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$42 +42%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$36 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $303 +$162 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $400 +$259 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,389 −$472 -34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $675 −$112 -17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$23 +23%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $201 +$53 +27%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $100 +$17 +17%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $100 +$13 +13%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $200 +$13 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $304 +$195 +64%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$50 +50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $202 −$44 -22%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $188 +$64 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $176 +$8 +5%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 +$37 +18%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $231 −$44 -19%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $73 −$23 -31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $98 −$94 -95%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$26 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$36 -69%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $302 +$98 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$58 -58%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 0m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 36m
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $202 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 6h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $102 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $102 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $154 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $101 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $101 12h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $101 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 24h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $102 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $100 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $400 35h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $382 35h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 80¢ $252 35h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 23¢ $111 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $947.15 · official $940.84 (match) · 3500 history records