Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9a3c…5089
crypto · 21 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
−$466 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25 · open −$496
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1,910
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$496
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage80d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 8 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $1,029 $802 −$227 (-22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $712 $565 −$147 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $279 $239 −$40 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $201 $137 −$64 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $81 $88 +$8 (+9%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes $74 $49 −$25 (-34%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $27 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Yes 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Yes 33¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Yes 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 22 $2 +$9 +495%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 05 $13 +$17 +130%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 17 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 15 $1 $0 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 30 $0 $0 -60%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 29 $1 $0 -88%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 28 $1 +$3 +290%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 28 $0 +$1 +150%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$488
other 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $95 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 1h
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $30 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $170 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $37 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $27 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $419 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $71 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $33 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $137 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $424 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $106 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $32 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $106 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $32 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $53 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 8d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $20 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $7 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 0% -17.1%
≤30d 3 +160.4% +135.6% 67% 33% +71.0%
≤90d 13 +47.3% +33.3% 46% 38% +64.4%
all 13 +47.3% +33.3% 46% 38% +64.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.3% 38% +64.4%
10% +20.5% 38% +48.7%
15% +8.9% 38% +34.3%
20% -1.8% 38% +21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,909.53 · official $1,909.53 (match) · 108 history records