Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9A 0x9a3f…c147 weather 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%185W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$152
14 days+$7
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% −$95
other 27% +$50
world 18% +$95
crypto 4% −$155
sports 4% −$1
finance 1% +$3
politics 1% +$7
tech 1% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 5% -6.8%
≤30d 84 -1.3% -10.7% 93% 6% -10.1%
≤90d 112 -1.0% -10.4% 92% 4% -10.1%
all 195 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$93 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses185 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)195 / 197
History coverage166d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? No 97¢ 99¢ $133 $137 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? Jun 20 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $226 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 19 $310 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $200 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $182 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $370 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $366 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $359 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $340 +$19 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $334 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $328 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $324 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $304 +$21 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $293 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $283 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $270 +$13 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $267 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $263 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $260 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $255 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $251 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $248 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $245 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $134 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $158 −$158 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 8? Jun 08 $157 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $137 +$21 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $128 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 07 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 07 $20 +$10 +47%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 07 $90 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $101 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $108 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $208 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $193 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $202 −$12 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $172 −$168 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $63 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $149 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $134 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? BUY Yes 96¢ $301 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $204 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $229 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $226 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $200 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $112 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $101 27h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $100 29h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $20 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $182 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $383 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $370 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $370 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $366 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $359 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $359 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $340 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 98¢ $334 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $328 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $324 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $304 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $293 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $293 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.11 · official $444.11 (match) · 424 history records