Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9A 0x9a40…2897 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$917 (+10%) realized +$991 · open −$74

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$737per market

Trades / day5.4pace

Fees−$26est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$3,916now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+19.9%	+8.5%	100%	100%	+8.0%
≤30d	4	+19.9%	+8.5%	100%	100%	+8.0%
≤90d	4	+19.9%	+8.5%	100%	100%	+8.0%
all	4	+19.9%	+8.5%	100%	100%	+8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.5%	100%	+8.0%
10%	-1.9%	25%	-2.4%
15%	-11.4%	0%	-11.8%
20%	-20.0%	0%	-20.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$233 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$3,916

Realized+$991

Unrealized−$74

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$26

Open positions8

Markets (closed)4 / 12

History coverage2d

Avg bet$737

Trades / day5.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Brazil	73¢	72¢	$700	$695	−$5 (-1%)
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance	France	88¢	87¢	$700	$692	−$8 (-1%)
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance	England	91¢	88¢	$700	$681	−$19 (-3%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Germany	87¢	84¢	$700	$680	−$20 (-3%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance	Mexico	63¢	62¢	$340	$337	−$3 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	62¢	60¢	$340	$332	−$8 (-2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance	Norway	67¢	65¢	$340	$330	−$10 (-3%)
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance	Belgium	62¢	62¢	$170	$169	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$1,708	+$292	+17%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$703	+$130	+18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$1,709	+$340	+20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$704	+$171	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance	BUY Belgium	62¢	$172	1h
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance	BUY England	91¢	$702	1h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance	BUY Mexico	63¢	$344	1h
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance	BUY France	88¢	$703	1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance	BUY Norway	67¢	$343	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	BUY Netherlands	62¢	$344	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	87¢	$703	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Brazil	73¢	$706	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	84¢	$703	47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$704	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$1,708	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	83¢	$1,709	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,915.95 · official $3,915.95 (match) · 16 history records