Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a44…3ec6 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+3%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$9
other 25% −$4
politics 12% −$1
sports 5% +$23
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
weather 4% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 15 +0.3% -9.3% 47% 0% -7.9%
all 33 -3.8% -13.0% 45% 3% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -6.8%
10% -21.3% 3% -15.7%
15% -28.9% 3% -23.9%
20% -35.9% 3% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.24 per $1 lost it wins $4.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage473d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $101 +$2 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $87 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $49 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $77 +$7 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $16 +$1 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $2 $0 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 05 $35 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $35 $0 -1%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 03 $35 $0 +1%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Mar 29 $34 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $34 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 27 $2 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 24 $35 $0 -1%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times March 14-21? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
MD Eastern Shore vs. Coppin State Mar 20 $16 +$23 +144%
McNeese State vs. Stephen F. Austin Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Flyers Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $52 44m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $51 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $51 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $50 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $35 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $49 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $50 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $50 34h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $50 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $49 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $44 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $38 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $34 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $3 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records