Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a46…0beb crypto 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate65%63W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$14
crypto 28% −$11
sports 11% +$52
economics 2% −$4
culture 1% −$4
finance 1% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 33% -1.9%
≤30d 6 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 33% -1.9%
≤90d 6 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 33% -1.9%
all 97 -11.4% -19.8% 65% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 12% -9.1%
10% -27.5% 7% -17.8%
15% -34.5% 6% -25.7%
20% -40.9% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses63 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)97 / 100
History coverage218d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 53¢ 52¢ $156 $152 −$4 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B? Yes 48¢ 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $12 +$8 +64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -84%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on December 2? Dec 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek Chat V3.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 comp Dec 14 $101 +$23 +23%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 1? Dec 01 $60 −$6 -11%
Flyers vs. Devils Nov 30 $26 +$34 +127%
Maple Leafs vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5 Nov 30 $9 +$6 +75%
Maple Leafs vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Nov 30 $14 +$16 +117%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 25-December 1? Nov 29 $73 +$2 +3%
Sharks vs. Golden Knights Nov 29 $28 −$9 -30%
Will Anfernee Simons win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? Nov 29 $10 $0 +3%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 28? Nov 29 $130 +$1 +1%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? Nov 27 $69 −$4 -5%
Will it Snow in Atlanta this December? Nov 26 $10 −$5 -53%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 24 $249 −$2 -1%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 23 $52 −$1 -2%
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? Nov 23 $37 −$20 -55%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 23 $64 −$4 -6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Nov 22 $87 +$3 +4%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M? Nov 21 $149 +$8 +5%
Will Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2027? Nov 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M? Nov 21 $406 −$15 -4%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%? Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 70%? Nov 20 $44 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? Nov 20 $16 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on November 20? Nov 20 $300 $0 +0%
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B? Nov 20 $42 $0 -1%
Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch? Nov 20 $42 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET Nov 19 $100 $0 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on November 19? Nov 19 $200 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 11PM ET Nov 19 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 1PM ET Nov 18 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 2PM ET Nov 18 $150 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on November 18? Nov 18 $25 $0 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on November 18? Nov 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4PM ET Nov 18 $8 $0 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on November 17? Nov 18 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12AM ET Nov 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5PM ET Nov 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET Nov 18 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - November 17, 5PM ET Nov 18 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 5AM ET Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - November 17, 6AM ET Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - November 17, 6AM ET Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - November 17, 1AM ET Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 32m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 32m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 32m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 37m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 43m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 48m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.09 · official $154.09 (match) · 629 history records