trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 12% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 16 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 12% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.6% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -18.2% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -26.1% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.4% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $53 | $53 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $49 | $49 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 18 | $1,222 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 18 | $1,191 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 17 | $1,329 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Jun 17 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 17 | $1,249 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close | Jun 16 | $1,289 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 16 | $1,304 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 16 | $63 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 16 | $1,229 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 16 | $1,211 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Apr 13 | $143 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | Apr 13 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 13 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Mar 25 | $130 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | Mar 25 | $27 | $0 | -0% |