Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a49…651a sports 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,626 (-11%) realized −$7,419 · open −$207
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%119W / 124L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$966est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days−$147
14 days+$906
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$7,568
other 4% −$895
weather 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 47% -11.7%
≤30d 95 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 46% -9.8%
≤90d 243 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 47% -20.9%
all 243 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 47% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 47% -20.9%
10% -20.4% 45% -28.5%
15% -28.1% 44% -35.4%
20% -35.2% 41% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$236 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,281
Realized−$7,419
Unrealized−$207
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses119 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$966
Open positions5
Markets (closed)243 / 248
History coverage85d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 61¢ 60¢ $576 $574 −$2 (-0%)
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card) Christian Rodriguez 67¢ 67¢ $469 $468 −$1 (-0%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 42¢ 44¢ $134 $138 +$5 (+4%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies No 56¢ 56¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Karol Rosa 52¢ $208 $0 −$207 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $238 +$248 +104%
Nathan Eovaldi: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $26 $0 -1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $157 −$155 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $100 +$67 +66%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $304 +$66 +22%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $160 +$200 +125%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $265 −$261 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $103 +$96 +93%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $106 +$69 +65%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $140 −$138 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $103 +$72 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $78 +$177 +226%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $204 +$108 +53%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $216 −$211 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$91 +89%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 −$59 -57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $238 −$234 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $207 +$113 +54%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $216 −$26 -12%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$102 +67%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $171 +$179 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $113 +$87 +76%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $321 +$508 +158%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $194 −$191 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $517 +$394 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $737 −$727 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $160 −$157 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $104 +$143 +138%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $104 −$103 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $229 +$293 +128%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $107 −$25 -23%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $306 −$303 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $62 −$1 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$173 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $107 +$143 +134%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $127 +$116 +92%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $151 −$150 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -50%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $494 −$494 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $100 −$98 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $279 −$8 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 68¢ $69 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 60¢ $94 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 42¢ $34 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 67¢ $52 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 60¢ $25 1h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 51¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $300 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $17 2h
Nathan Eovaldi: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 SELL Over 54¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 46¢ $63 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $12 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $2 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $12 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $1 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $4 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $22 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY No 56¢ $102 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $101 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 36¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $107 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $16 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $167 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $175 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $68 4h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 67¢ $46 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $100 5h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $327 5h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 67¢ $41 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,280.94 · official $1,280.94 (match) · 1056 history records