Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a4b…03d6 sports 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 443d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$20,560 (+67%) realized +$20,550 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$487per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3,320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$412
7 days+$761
14 days+$1,814
30 days+$23,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$454
other 26% +$2,272
politics 16% +$18,547
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -15.3% -23.3% 46% 46% -3.6%
≤30d 32 +12.4% +1.7% 50% 50% +109.3%
≤90d 35 +2.8% -7.0% 46% 46% +100.5%
all 56 -9.5% -18.2% 41% 41% +60.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 41% +60.4%
10% -26.0% 39% +45.1%
15% -33.1% 38% +31.0%
20% -39.7% 34% +18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +122% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +77% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,334 vs −$313 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$3,320
Realized+$20,550
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions7
Markets (closed)56 / 63
History coverage443d
Avg bet$487
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $750 $744 −$6 (-1%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $660 $684 +$24 (+4%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 62¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $350 $347 −$3 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $350 $347 −$3 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$200 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $456 +$307 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $709 +$541 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $406 −$400 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $406 −$400 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $818 −$800 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $406 +$445 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $203 +$197 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $609 −$600 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $406 −$400 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $610 +$754 +124%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,119 −$1,100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $406 +$427 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 +$603 +119%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,021 +$1,034 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,183 +$572 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$205 +101%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $460 −$460 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $785 +$1,512 +193%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $3,067 +$20,308 +662%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $2,086 +$1,467 +70%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $291 −$287 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $307 −$300 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $200 −$196 -98%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $1,730 −$467 -27%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 11 $957 +$142 +15%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Feb 22 $265 −$265 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 21 $251 −$251 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Feb 21 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 15 $347 −$347 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will T1 win the LCK Cup 2026? Feb 12 $128 −$128 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 25 $384 +$100 +26%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jan 25 $801 −$801 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jan 25 $300 +$498 +166%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 23 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jan 23 $140 −$140 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $203 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $202 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $203 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $202 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $203 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $51 30h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $304 31h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $203 31h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $202 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 31h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $101 31h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $203 31h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $101 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 31h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 31h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $72 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,319.90 · official $3,308.76 (match) · 218 history records