Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a4c…eaf0 world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-3%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$5
other 27% −$1
sports 9% −$5
crypto 6% $0
politics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 14% 14% -11.3%
≤90d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 14% 14% -11.3%
all 18 -1.1% -10.5% 28% 6% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -11.9%
10% -19.0% 6% -20.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -28.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage465d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $109 −$2 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $39 −$3 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $72 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +26%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 21 $7 $0 +4%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 02 $8 $0 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 22 $13 −$5 -37%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $13 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $1 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $16 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $25 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $25 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $36 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $39 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $17 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $26 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.58 · official $32.58 (match) · 59 history records