Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a4c…5ff7 weather 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,509 (-22%) realized −$1,449 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%44W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$260
14 days+$254
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$93
weather 28% −$545
other 27% −$847
tech 5% −$31
finance 2% −$140
politics 1% +$19
crypto 1% −$19
economics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +34.4% +21.6% 34% 34% +10.6%
≤30d 64 -10.5% -19.1% 31% 28% -19.2%
≤90d 160 -31.4% -38.0% 28% 26% -35.3%
all 160 -31.4% -38.0% 28% 26% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 26% -35.3%
10% -43.9% 25% -41.5%
15% -49.3% 22% -47.2%
20% -54.3% 18% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$25 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1,450
Realized−$1,449
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses44 / 116
Open positions27
Markets (closed)160 / 187
History coverage75d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $219 $270 +$51 (+23%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 16¢ $440 $216 −$224 (-51%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $152 +$52 (+52%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? No 16¢ 30¢ $64 $119 +$55 (+86%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 57¢ 72¢ $90 $115 +$25 (+28%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $138 $110 −$28 (-20%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $90 $60 −$30 (-34%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+50%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
FDA approves Unicycive's Oxylanthanum carbonate? No 21¢ 24¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 67¢ 92¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 18¢ 36¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+107%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$6 +78%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$40 +982%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$10 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$54 +270%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $400 +$97 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $30 +$43 +142%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $10 +$18 +175%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +170%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $250 +$88 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $191 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$32 +754%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$4 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$5 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$6 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 1? May 31 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $10 +$9 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 31? May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $9 +$12 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $4 −$4 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 28? May 28 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 19h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 57¢ $90 20h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $95 20h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $90 20h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $92 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 43h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 43h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 46h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,449.63 · official $1,449.91 (match) · 428 history records