Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:10:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

9A 0x9a4f…04bb other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$43 · open −$36

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate22%4W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$44per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Kalshi-fit32%portable

Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$183

7 days+$183

14 days+$72

30 days+$41

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-22.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+270.1%	+234.9%	33%	33%	+386.9%
≤30d	18	-13.9%	-22.1%	22%	17%	-0.8%
≤90d	18	-13.9%	-22.1%	22%	17%	-0.8%
all	18	-13.9%	-22.1%	22%	17%	-0.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.1%	17%	-0.8%
10%	-29.5%	11%	-10.3%
15%	-36.3%	11%	-19.0%
20%	-42.6%	11%	-26.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 77% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -66% → late +38% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$66 vs −$16 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.18 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$243

Realized+$43

Unrealized−$36

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses4 / 14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage14d

Avg bet$44

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$279	$243	−$36 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	Jun 27	$21	+$201	+979%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 26	$11	−$7	-69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 26	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$82	−$69	-84%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu	Jun 19	$31	+$5	+16%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$82	+$4	+5%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$51	+$53	+102%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	Jun 13	$18	−$9	-49%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-97%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-97%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-97%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$21	−$20	-97%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$206	2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	SELL No	89¢	$222	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	SELL Down	5¢	$3	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$5	7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$15	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	7d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	0¢	$7	7d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	3¢	$72	8d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	2¢	$7	8d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu	SELL No	6¢	$36	8d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	3¢	$48	8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$44	13d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	BUY No	8¢	$21	13d
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	BUY No	4¢	$31	13d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu	BUY No	5¢	$31	13d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	2¢	$31	13d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	1¢	$38	14d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	25¢	$104	14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$66	14d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	BUY No	4¢	$9	14d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	SELL Yes	96¢	$9	14d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	BUY Yes	96¢	$9	14d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	4¢	$15	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.93 · official $242.93 (match) · 59 history records