Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a50…e934 sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,855 (-13%) realized −$1,855 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%27W / 29L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$284
7 days+$660
14 days−$131
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$2,039
other 6% +$1,818
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 58% 54% +0.7%
≤30d 56 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 43% -10.9%
≤90d 56 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 43% -10.9%
all 56 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 43% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 43% -10.9%
10% -27.3% 36% -19.4%
15% -34.3% 16% -27.2%
20% -40.7% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$133 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,855
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses27 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage14d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $843 +$1,818 +216%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $269 −$139 -52%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $74 $0 +0%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 20 $605 −$600 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $372 −$298 -80%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $201 +$46 +23%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $352 −$226 -64%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 20 $202 −$73 -36%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $153 −$42 -28%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $201 −$134 -66%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $170 −$67 -40%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 18 $201 +$52 +26%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $303 +$40 +13%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 17 $151 −$60 -40%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $201 +$46 +23%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$69 +34%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 16 $151 +$49 +32%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $166 +$59 +36%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $172 +$121 +70%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 15 $202 +$72 +36%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $201 −$200 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $151 +$32 +21%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 13 $201 +$49 +24%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 13 $249 +$70 +28%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $325 +$100 +31%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $333 −$8 -2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $353 +$77 +22%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 10 $151 −$150 -99%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 10 $1,186 +$422 +36%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $594 −$179 -30%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $590 −$81 -14%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 10 $353 +$122 +34%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $301 −$113 -38%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $201 $0 +0%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 09 $209 −$105 -50%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $239 −$180 -76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $151 −$121 -80%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 09 $151 −$26 -17%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 09 $101 +$36 +36%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 09 $150 −$5 -3%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $143 −$38 -27%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 09 $302 +$18 +6%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 08 $152 +$76 +50%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $298 −$296 -99%
Spread: New York Mets (-4.5) Jun 07 $300 −$2 -1%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 07 $234 +$65 +28%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $151 −$117 -77%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $245 −$243 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,661 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $843 3h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 28¢ $130 3h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $269 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $74 4h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 71¢ $605 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $53 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $21 5h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Cleveland Guardians 12¢ $74 5h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 58¢ $246 5h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $247 5h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 58¢ $126 5h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 26¢ $126 5h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 66¢ $49 6h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 71¢ $303 6h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) SELL San Diego Padres 47¢ $129 6h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 72¢ $202 6h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 81¢ $201 6h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 54¢ $111 7h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 73¢ $151 7h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 74¢ $2 7h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 27¢ $68 34h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 78¢ $201 35h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $103 35h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $170 36h
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 79¢ $201 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $343 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 66¢ $303 2d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 43¢ $91 2d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 69¢ $151 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records